Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 873

June 11, 20164 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 11, 2016, 12:03 AM MDT for 4 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 11, 2016, 12:03 AM MDT (06:03 UTC)
Expired: Jun 11, 2016, 1:30 AM MDT
In force: 87 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Billings County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Stark County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 167 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 171 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 6 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -223 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2494 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -15 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 136 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

455 
ACUS11 KWNS 110604
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110603 
NDZ000-110730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0873
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 110603Z - 110730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A CONFINED/ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP INTO PARTS
OF WESTERN ND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT OVERALL RISK
SHOULD DIMINISH AND A NEW WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER CENTERED OVER DAWSON COUNTY MT HAS HAD
A HISTORY OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS...MOST RECENTLY A SPOTTER MEASURED
GUST OF 62 MPH AT 0535Z. THIS CLUSTER IS OCCURRING AROUND 100 MILES
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST MT THAT ARCS EAST OF
A CYCLONE IN THE LEE OF THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS
IS MORE STABLE INTO WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ND WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 8-15 DEG F COOLER COMPARED TO EAST-CENTRAL
MT. THIS SUGGESTS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS
IT SPREADS EAST INTO ND...A SCENARIO WELL SUPPORTED BY RECENT
CONVECTION-ALLOWING SIMULATIONS.

..GRAMS/HART.. 06/11/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON   47720389 47750312 47700225 47410171 46960178 46740212
            46640266 46720321 47050389 47720389

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 11, 2:50 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Billings, Bowman, Golden Valley, McKenzie, Slope, Williams	85 min
Jun 11, 5:18 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Bowman, Grant, Hettinger, Sioux, Slope	117 min
Jun 11, 5:51 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adams, Billings, Bowman, Burke, Divide, Dunn and 13 more	7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.