Mesoscale Discussion 856

Issued

Jun 9, 2016, 6:28 PM MDT (00:28 UTC)

Expired

Jun 9, 2016, 8:00 PM MDT

In force

92 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

20%

The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

246 
ACUS11 KWNS 100029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100028 
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-100200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO ERN NM AND W
TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 100028Z - 100200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ONGOING BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN NM AND
THE WRN TX PANHANDLE WILL POSE A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG
TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW
ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NM ALONG A SFC TROUGH HAS CONGEALED INTO A
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN TX PANHANDLE
INTO SERN NM. WHILE NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT OVERLY STRONG...SOME
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MCD REGION
MAY AID THE CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM AMA REVEALS A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
HEIGHT THROUGH 5 KM...ALTHOUGH WINDS WEAKEN ABOVE THAT LEVEL THROUGH
9 KM. REGARDLESS...30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINTAIN SOME ORGANIZATION AS THEY
PROPAGATE ESEWD WITH TIME. STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRESENT ACROSS THE MCD AREA COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY MAY
PROMOTE CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT WINDS THAT COULD APPROACH/EXCEED SEVERE
LEVELS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STRONGER CORES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. WITH DIURNAL COOLING
OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MLCIN WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE WIND/HAIL THREAT TO
MAINLY WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES AND ERN NM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED SPATIAL/TEMPORAL SEVERE THREAT...WW
ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..GLEASON/CORFIDI.. 06/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35930349 36930205 36950072 35760070 34040135 32030237
            31670347 31990421 33350411 35930349

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.