Alert archive / Wyoming / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 849
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 9, 2016, 2:18 PM MDT for 9 counties in Wyoming. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 9, 2016, 2:18 PM MDT (20:18 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 9, 2016, 4:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Big Horn County, WY, Campbell County, WY, Converse County, WY, Fremont County, WY, Hot Springs County, WY, Johnson County, WY, Natrona County, WY, Park County, WY, Washakie County, WY
The radar
The Riverton/Lander radar (KRIW), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Riverton, WY (KRIW), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 57 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2869 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 15 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 45 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 44 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
839
ACUS11 KWNS 092018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092018
WYZ000-092245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WYOMING
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 092018Z - 092245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WITH WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST
WITH CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WYOMING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS CONTINUE TO
FOSTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY THE GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS AND
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE ABSAROKA RANGE AND WIND RIVER RANGE...AND CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SPREAD
NEWD/EWD. DEEP SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAKER COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FARTHER N/NW...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DRIER COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FARTHER N/NW. REGARDLESS...STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING MARGINAL TO
MODERATE BUOYANCY AND 20-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
A FEW INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORES WITH SVR HAIL. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYERS WILL ENCOURAGE EVAPORATIVE COOLING/ACCELERATION OF DOWNDRAFTS
WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS -- PERHAPS LOCALLY REACHING SVR LEVELS.
WITHOUT STRONGER DEEP ASCENT / STRONGER DEEP SHEAR...AND WITHOUT
GREATER BUOYANCY...THE SVR RISK IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ISOLATED.
..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/09/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 43170954 44080997 44580956 44780727 44290532 42150537
41900782 43170954SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 4:06 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Campbell, Crook, Johnson, Weston | 84 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Wyoming, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.