Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 837
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 6, 2016, 8:07 PM EDT for 41 counties in Florida. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 6, 2016, 8:07 PM EDT (00:07 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 6, 2016, 11:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 41 counties
Alachua County, FL, Baker County, FL, Bradford County, FL, Brevard County, FL, Charlotte County, FL, Citrus County, FL, Clay County, FL, Collier County, FL, Columbia County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Flagler County, FL, Gilchrist County, FL, Glades County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hendry County, FL, Hernando County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Hillsborough County, FL, Indian River County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Lake County, FL, Lee County, FL, Levy County, FL, Manatee County, FL, Marion County, FL, Okeechobee County, FL, Orange County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Palm Beach County, FL, Pasco County, FL, Polk County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Saint Johns County, FL, Sarasota County, FL, Seminole County, FL, Sumter County, FL, Suwannee County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Union County, FL, Volusia County, FL
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 109 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 253 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -21 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 643 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 325 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 475 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.4
- Supercell composite
- 4.9
The text
As transmitted.
975
ACUS11 KWNS 070008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070007
FLZ000-GAZ000-070300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0837
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 070007Z - 070300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA AND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM COLIN
IS 50 MI S OF AAF. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT
SOMEWHAT DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE FL
BIG BEND AND FARTHER E NEAR CTY AND FARTHER SE NEAR SRQ. ISOLATED
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH CELLS NEAR SRQ AND CTY.
SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE ERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE WHILE DRIER...CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES AND
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
WRN SEMICIRCLE.
IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED BY THE
TBW VAD WIND PROFILE. OBSERVATIONS AROUND 2325Z SAMPLED 55 KT FLOW
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KM. THIS STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SUPPORTING 0-1 KM
SRH VALUES OVER 400 M2 PER S2. THIS AREA OF STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
NEWD TOWARDS THE FL BIG BEND. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...CORRIDOR
OF THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM
TAMPA BAY NEWD TO MELBOURNE.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE THREAT FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL EXIST WILL ANY PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION.
CURRENTLY...THE BEST INSTABILITY /ALTHOUGH STILL FAIRLY WEAK/ IS
DISPLACED TO THE S AND SE OF THE BETTER FLOW...ACTING TO LIMIT STORM
STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE. HOWEVER...RECENT MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS
SOME THETA-E ADVECTION IS ONGOING TO THE SE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND A
BETTER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY RESULT OVER THE CNTRL FL
PENINSULA IN A FEW HOURS. IN ALL...OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.
..MOSIER/KERR.. 06/07/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 29628381 30338373 30448207 29858135 28158061 26608031
26048156 27218257 28958304 29628381Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.