Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 832
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 6, 2016, 12:33 PM MDT for 5 states. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 6, 2016, 12:33 PM MDT (18:33 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 6, 2016, 3:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 30 counties
Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Costilla County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Custer County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Fremont County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Teller County, CO, Finney County, KS, Grant County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Morton County, KS, Scott County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Colfax County, NM, Union County, NM, Cimarron County, OK, Dallam County, TX
The radar
The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 239 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2019 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 6 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 67 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.0
The text
As transmitted.
151
ACUS11 KWNS 061833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061833
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-062100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0832
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CENTRAL/SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK/TX
PANHANDLES...NERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 061833Z - 062100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND SEVERE HAIL. A WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL/SRN CO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN AREA OF TOWERING
CUMULUS/DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER EAST IN THE VICINITY OF
CHEYENNE COUNTY CO. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN EAST-WEST SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
AT 18Z...WITH GENERALLY WEAK EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
CONTINUED STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY WEAKLY BUOYANT AND
INCREASINGLY UNCAPPED AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE IN THE 750-1000 J/KG
RANGE. LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS. THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND AND
LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONGEALING OUTFLOWS WITH TIME
WILL RESULT IN A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT.
..BUNTING/WEISS.. 06/06/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36390494 37150550 38160560 38800555 39170522 39050463
38940286 38940226 38990152 38490075 38020072 37400101
36980139 36560185 36100280 35780433 36390494Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.