Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 820

June 5, 20165 counties in Minnesota; 12 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 5, 2016, 12:23 PM CDT for 5 counties in Minnesota; 12 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 5, 2016, 12:23 PM CDT (17:23 UTC)
Expired: Jun 5, 2016, 3:00 PM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Carlton County, MN, Itasca County, MN, Lake County, MN, Pine County, MN, Saint Louis County, MN, Ashland County, WI, Barron County, WI, Bayfield County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Douglas County, WI, Polk County, WI, Price County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Washburn County, WI

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 5.4 hours before the alert went out and 234 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1036 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 102 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 122 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

232 
ACUS11 KWNS 051724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051723 
WIZ000-MNZ000-052000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MN...NRN/CENTRAL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 051723Z - 052000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
LARGER-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED
WITHIN STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DESPITE LOWER 50S SURFACE
DEW POINTS...STRONG INSOLATION AND MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL RESULT IN
WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WILL RESULT IN ORGANIZED STORMS...POSSIBLY
WITH MID-LEVEL ROTATION SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST.

THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..BUNTING/WEISS.. 06/05/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   48269322 48229186 47359108 46949081 45939011 45208999
            44739068 44809151 45149220 46139315 47549387 48269322

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.