Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 82

February 2, 20166 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 2, 2016, 7:48 PM EST for 6 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 2, 2016, 7:48 PM EST (00:48 UTC)
Expired: Feb 2, 2016, 11:45 PM EST
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 90 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 510 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 69 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 436 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 1069 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

593 
ACUS11 KWNS 030048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030048 
MIZ000-030445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI...LAKE HURON

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 030048Z - 030445Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI
EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR
WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SNOWBANDS. A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE MID MO VALLEY WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING
ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN ALPENA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOW A PROFILE MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING WITH A
WARM NOSE NEAR 700 MB. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST
OF NE LOWER MI FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS WHERE AREAS HEAVY SNOW WILL
BE LIKELY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS. AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS
EVENING...THE WARM LAYER NEAR 700 MB SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE
2 TO 3 CELSIUS RANGE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AS THE WARMING OCCURS...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD ACROSS NRN LAKE HURON.

..BROYLES.. 02/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...

LAT...LON   44478280 44368306 44348342 44408385 44528429 44628446
            44828459 45338441 45658349 45428275 44898249 44618260
            44478280

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.