Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 810

June 3, 201635 counties in Iowa; 9 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 3, 2016, 3:06 PM CDT for 35 counties in Iowa; 9 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 114 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 3, 2016, 3:06 PM CDT (20:06 UTC)
Expired: Jun 3, 2016, 5:00 PM CDT
In force: 114 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 40%

All 44 counties

Audubon County, IA, Boone County, IA, Buena Vista County, IA, Butler County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cerro Gordo County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Floyd County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Greene County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hancock County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Humboldt County, IA, Ida County, IA, Kossuth County, IA, Mitchell County, IA, Monona County, IA, Palo Alto County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Pocahontas County, IA, Sac County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Story County, IA, Webster County, IA, Winnebago County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Worth County, IA, Wright County, IA, Burt County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dakota County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Washington County, NE

The radar

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 126 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 126 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2040 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -29 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 26 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

739 
ACUS11 KWNS 032006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032006 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-032200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0810
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB THROUGH WRN AND NCNTRL IA INTO EXTREME
SERN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 032006Z - 032200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM NERN NEB INTO WRN IA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE A FEW INSTANCES OF DOWNBURST WINDS
AND HAIL. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...TOWERING CUMULUS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING
WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NERN NEB ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CNTRL NEB THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. EAST OF THE TROUGH
FROM ERN NEB INTO IA...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN TO
THE UPPER 40S RESULTING IN WEAKER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND SEWD MOVING VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS PROCESS SHOULD RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER NERN NEB INTO NWRN IA. A
MID-LEVEL JET WITHIN BASE OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL RESULT IN
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 35-40 KT. STORMS DEVELOPING ABOVE
DEEPLY MIXED...INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR
MAINLY ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SOME HAIL
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 06/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   41869754 42719642 43599383 43669254 42179283 41479471
            41239626 41349718 41869754

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.