Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 809
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 3, 2016, 2:31 PM CDT for 5 counties in Minnesota; 19 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 3, 2016, 2:31 PM CDT (19:31 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 3, 2016, 5:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 24 counties
Fillmore County, MN, Houston County, MN, Olmsted County, MN, Wabasha County, MN, Winona County, MN, Adams County, WI, Buffalo County, WI, Clark County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Jackson County, WI, Juneau County, WI, La Crosse County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Lincoln County, WI, Marathon County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Monroe County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Portage County, WI, Shawano County, WI, Trempealeau County, WI, Waupaca County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Wood County, WI
The radar
The La Crosse radar (KARX), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 181 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1048 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -29 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 73 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
960
ACUS11 KWNS 031932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031931
WIZ000-MNZ000-032200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0809
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MN...CNTRL/NRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 031931Z - 032200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SOME INCREASE IN STRONG-TSTM POTENTIAL MAY EXIST THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF DCVA PRECEDING A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
EMERGING OVER WRN MN FROM THE DAKOTAS IS OVERTAKING RETURNING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES E OF A
WIDESPREAD CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS NWRN WI / MUCH OF MN. THIS
ASCENT...AND MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH
BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS RESULTING FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD SHIELD...ARE ALREADY SUPPORTING AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MN. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD
EWD/ENEWD INTO/ACROSS CNTRL/NRN WI DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD ALSO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM. HOWEVER...
LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WILL BE MITIGATING FACTORS WITH
REGARD TO THE OVERALL SVR RISK. REGARDLESS...AMPLE SUB-CLOUD
EVAPORATION OWING TO ANTECEDENT DEEP VERTICAL MIXING...COUPLED WITH
MODESTLY INCREASING DEEP SHEAR AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE...MAY FOSTER
LOOSELY ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DMGG WIND GUSTS.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 06/03/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 44349234 45229044 45448924 45248837 44518818 44078908
43679089 43649253 44349234Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.