Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 802

June 1, 201618 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 1, 2016, 5:23 PM CDT for 18 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 1, 2016, 5:23 PM CDT (22:23 UTC)
Expired
Jun 1, 2016, 7:30 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Bandera County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Comal County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Hays County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Llano County, TX, Mason County, TX, Menard County, TX, Real County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Val Verde County, TX

The radar

The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDLF), launched 12:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 81 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2016-06-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 701 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2016-06-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 77 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
701 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-101 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
809 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
77 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
23 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

389 
ACUS11 KWNS 012224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012223 
TXZ000-020030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0802
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...TRANS-PECOS TO HILL COUNTRY OF TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 012223Z - 020030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO MID-EVENING.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE BIG
BEND...EDWARDS PLATEAU...AND HILL COUNTRY REGIONS. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE BUOYANCY AMID MID 50S SURFACE DEW
POINTS OVER THE TRANS-PECOS TO UPPER 60S IN THE HILL COUNTRY. WHILE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIGHT PER AREA VWP DATA AND PROGGED TO REMAIN
WEAK THIS EVENING...MODERATE SPEED SHEAR /EFFECTIVE VALUES AROUND
25-30 KT/ IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS WILL FOSTER CONTINUED HAIL
PRODUCTION. SETUP SHOULD FAVOR HAIL SIZE REMAINING AT OR BELOW GOLF
BALL. THIS RISK SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL
MASS RESPONSE AMID INCREASING MLCIN.

..GRAMS/HART.. 06/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30330280 30850124 31009976 30739839 30409787 29679798
            29499840 29359971 29390100 29730261 29690305 30150314
            30330280

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.