Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 787
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 30, 2016, 1:55 PM EDT for 25 counties in New York; 9 counties in Pennsylvania; 6 counties in Vermont. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 30, 2016, 1:55 PM EDT (17:55 UTC)
- Expired
- May 30, 2016, 4:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 40 counties
Albany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Clinton County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Essex County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Bradford County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Montour County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, Addison County, VT, Chittenden County, VT, Franklin County, VT, Grand Isle County, VT, Lamoille County, VT, Rutland County, VT
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 107 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1225 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 39 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 41 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 72 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
344
ACUS11 KWNS 301755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301755
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-302000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0787
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF UPSTATE/CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
VERMONT...AND NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 301755Z - 302000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF WIND
DAMAGE EXPECTED NEAR THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW AREAS
OF TOWERING CUMULUS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA IS WEAK BASED ON LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...BUT MODEL POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS CONTINUED INSOLATION/SURFACE
HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ALOFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK IN THE REGION...BUT CONTINUED HEATING
AMIDST A CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH TIME. A FEW INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE/SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE
EXPECTED GIVEN 50+ KNOT FLOW ALOFT...AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
SUGGESTS PRIMARILY OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS.
GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/30/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
LAT...LON 44987400 44987309 44787262 44057267 42947340 41807494
41117613 40937690 41087742 41597743 42317710 43327596
44177484 44987400Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.