Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 779
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 29, 2016, 1:42 PM MDT for Eddy County, Lea County, New Mexico; 33 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 29, 2016, 1:42 PM MDT (19:42 UTC)
- Expired
- May 29, 2016, 3:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 35 counties
Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Brewster County, TX, Coke County, TX, Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Culberson County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Garza County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Irion County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Terry County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX, Yoakum County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 75 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 76 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1377 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -135 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 789 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 199 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 258 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- -0.1
- Supercell composite
- -2.2
The text
As transmitted.
223
ACUS11 KWNS 291942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291942
TXZ000-NMZ000-292145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0779
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291942Z - 292145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA AND ALSO NEAR PECOS COUNTY. WITH A SEVERE
THREAT ON THE INCREASE...A WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...CONTINUED INSOLATION AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS
RESULTING IN WEAKENING INHIBITION AND CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG INSTABILITY /AROUND
3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE/ AND 40-50 KNOTS OF WESTERLY DEEP SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS A BIT WEAK AT
THE CURRENT TIME...OWING TO FLOW LESS THAN 20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE
TO 5 KM ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS WOULD TEND TO FOSTER
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS THAT WILL POSE A HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS /I.E. RELATIVELY EARLY IN THEIR LIFE
CYCLE/.
WITH TIME...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MATURE AND MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA...POSSIBLY ENCOUNTERING BOTH
RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA/ AND SOMEWHAT GREATER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DUE TO NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER PROCESSES /ESPECIALLY TOWARD 00Z/. THESE FACTORS
SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES /ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT
CAN STAY DISCRETE/ AND A THREAT OF HAIL...WIND...AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE A WW ISSUANCE.
..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/29/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 29770150 29830194 29870241 29750273 29620288 29650337
29970384 30630428 31370460 31960464 32410487 33030452
33480360 33600256 33610142 33430089 32700063 32320056
31440046 30620049 30070092 29770150SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 11:48 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Curry, Quay, Roosevelt | 117 min |
| May 29, 12:53 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Harding, Quay, Roosevelt and 1 more | 8 hr |
| May 29, 2:57 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Eddy, Lea | 7 hr |
| May 28, 9:00 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Bandera, Baylor, Bexar, Blanco, Borden and 57 more | 60 min |
| May 29, 6:52 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carson, Collingsworth, Donley, Gray, Hansford, Hemphill and 5 more | 2 hr |
| May 29, 3:56 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Henderson, Hood and 14 more | 94 min |
| May 29, 4:21 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Cottle, Foard, Hall, Haskell and 10 more | 114 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.