Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 778
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 29, 2016, 2:34 PM EDT for 11 counties in Michigan; Fulton County, Williams County, Ohio. It was in force for 116 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 29, 2016, 2:34 PM EDT (18:34 UTC)
- Expired
- May 29, 2016, 4:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 116 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Genesee County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Fulton County, OH, Williams County, OH
The radar
The Detroit radar (KDTX), 36 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 40 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 643 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -73 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 801 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 78 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 92 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 1.1
The text
As transmitted.
545
ACUS11 KWNS 291834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291834
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-292030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LWR MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT NERN IND/NWRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 291834Z - 292030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT
LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A
WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS IS IN THE PROCESS OF
INITIATING ALONG AN APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE...NORTHEAST
OF FORT WAYNE THROUGH THE MICHIGAN THUMB AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG...INHIBITION FOR A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE. THE DEGREE OF UNSATURATION WITHIN
THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE EVIDENT IN THE 18Z RAOB FROM DETROIT COULD
INITIALLY SLOW STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
NOW PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SCATTERED INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS BY 20-22Z.
SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT A BELT
OF 30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY SUPPORT
LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...WHICH COULD IMPACT THE DETROIT
METROPOLITAN AREA...AS DOWNDRAFTS INTENSIFY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
UNTIL THEN...STRONGER INITIAL STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK
FOR HAIL THAT COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.
..KERR/CORFIDI.. 05/29/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 43408397 44008295 43158262 41618387 41408458 41718490
42658441 43408397Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.