Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 730

May 25, 201612 counties in North Dakota; 22 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 25, 2016, 6:10 PM CDT for 12 counties in North Dakota; 22 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 65 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 25, 2016, 6:10 PM CDT (23:10 UTC)
Expired: May 25, 2016, 7:15 PM CDT
In force: 65 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 40%

All 34 counties

Barnes County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Wells County, ND, Aurora County, SD, Beadle County, SD, Brown County, SD, Brule County, SD, Buffalo County, SD, Campbell County, SD, Clark County, SD, Davison County, SD, Day County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Hand County, SD, Hyde County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Marshall County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Potter County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Spink County, SD, Walworth County, SD

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 83 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 7 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -228 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1319 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -41 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -111 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

937 
ACUS11 KWNS 252311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252310 
SDZ000-NDZ000-260015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN ND...CNTRL/ERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 252310Z - 260015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED BUT OVERALL SEVERE
COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN. PRIMARY SVR THREAT WOULD BE HAIL AND TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY TO DETERMINE IF A WW IS
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER WRN ND WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL SD AND INTO CNTRL NEB.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER HAS
RECENTLY INCREASED WHILE THE SEVERE STORM OVER HUGHES AND HYDE
COUNTIES IN CNTRL SD PERSISTS...DESPITE REMAINING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT
AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WRN SD PROVIDE THE LIFT
NEEDED FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF ND/SD BORDER. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED BUT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT --
CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J PER KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR AROUND 40 KT -- WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS
CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL. 

WITH WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED...THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY
RESULTING IN ONLY 40-PERCENT WATCH PROBABILITIES IS SVR COVERAGE.
CURRENT THINKING IS SVR COVERAGE WITH REMAIN GENERALLY ISOLATED BUT
TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   47029802 45739712 45009727 43829775 43319825 43079961
            44429977 45130009 45820046 46100066 47110115 47689983
            47029802

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 24, 9:02 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bennett, Haakon, Hughes, Hyde, Jackson, Jones and 6 more	58 min
May 25, 2:52 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aurora, Beadle, Brule, Buffalo, Charles Mix, Davison and 12 more	53 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.