Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 729
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 25, 2016, 4:59 PM CDT for 25 counties in Minnesota. It was in force for 61 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 25, 2016, 4:59 PM CDT (21:59 UTC)
- Expired
- May 25, 2016, 6:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 61 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 25 counties
Blue Earth County, MN, Carver County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Dodge County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Fillmore County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Mower County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Olmsted County, MN, Pope County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Steele County, MN, Wabasha County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Wright County, MN
The radar
The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 35 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 452 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -107 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1396 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 53 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 80 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
826
ACUS11 KWNS 252200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252159
MNZ000-WIZ000-252300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0729
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 252159Z - 252300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A MARGINAL SVR RISK IF ANY
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN
/HENCE LOW WATCH PROBABILITIES/ BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW FAR WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS CNTRL MN AND INTO CNTRL WI...DEMARCATED
FAIRLY WELL BY THE 70 DEG F ISOTHERM. AN ADDITIONAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SSEWD INTO S-CNTRL MN. WARM SECTOR BETWEEN
THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES IS UNSTABLE WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS
SUGGESTING MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG. SURFACE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE NEW CONVECTION...WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF A MARGINAL SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT
WEAKENING TRENDS NOTED WITH THE ONGOING STORMS AND FLAT APPEARANCE
OF THE CU FIELD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT MAY
BE EXPERIENCING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNCERTAIN. TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SIGNS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 45579559 45909570 46079523 44929314 44299195 43619178
43519248 43699392 44819504 45579559Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.