Mesoscale Discussion 723

Issued

May 25, 2016, 1:13 AM CDT (06:13 UTC)

Expired

May 25, 2016, 3:45 AM CDT

In force

3 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

40%

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

652 
ACUS11 KWNS 250613
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250613 
ARZ000-OKZ000-250845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0723
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 250613Z - 250845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS ACROSS ERN OK. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WRN AR MAY BE AFFECTED
LATER THIS MORNING. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS A COUPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN ERN OK LOCATED ON THE NRN EDGE OF A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F.
THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK
EXTENDING INTO WRN AR WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1500
TO 2500 J/KG RANGE BY RAP MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. SFC WINDS ARE BACKED
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
LOW-LEVELS AS IS EVIDENT ON THE WSR-88D VWP IN WRN AR. THIS WIND
PROFILE WILL CONTINUE SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO...VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH
MAY RESULT IN MORE OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS. FOR THIS REASON...THE
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3
HOURS ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO WEAKER INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36109636 35719650 34889650 34359621 34179524 34439440
            35479419 36319459 36459572 36329619 36109636

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.