Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 709

May 24, 201612 counties in Minnesota; Pierce County, Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 24, 2016, 4:55 PM CDT for 12 counties in Minnesota; Pierce County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 65 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 24, 2016, 4:55 PM CDT (21:55 UTC)
Expired: May 24, 2016, 6:00 PM CDT
In force: 65 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Carver County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Pierce County, WI

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 15 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 384 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -49 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 862 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 6 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 48 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

914 
ACUS11 KWNS 242155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242155 
WIZ000-MNZ000-242300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0709
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 242155Z - 242300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE-HAIL AND STRONG WIND-GUST THREAT MAY
ACCOMPANY A MATURING STORM ACROSS CNTRL MN THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THESE THREATS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS CNTRL MN...AND IS ANCHORED ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S F ARE OBSERVED TO
THE S OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE STRONGER MIXING HAS OCCURRED...WHILE A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW-MID 60S F DEWPOINTS IS IN PLACE INVOF THE
BOUNDARY. WEAK ELY WINDS ARE PRESENT N OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...AND STRONGER IN
THE MID-LEVELS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /AROUND 30 KT/ AND COLD MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED ISOLATED
LARGE-HAIL THREAT...AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...PRIOR TO
THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 05/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44389214 44289353 44579476 44989548 45329555 45459525
            45369466 45099378 45039326 44929272 44729225 44389214

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.