Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 69

February 1, 201619 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 1, 2016, 8:30 PM CST for 19 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 1, 2016, 8:30 PM CST (02:30 UTC)
Expired: Feb 1, 2016, 11:00 PM CST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, McClain County, OK, Murray County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK

The radar

The Norman radar (KTLX), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 53 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1580 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 87 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 316 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 457 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

552 
ACUS11 KWNS 020231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020230 
OKZ000-TXZ000-020500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0830 PM CST MON FEB 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SW AND CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 020230Z - 020500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE THREATS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH
FOR WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 997 MB LOW NEAR WICHITA
FALLS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW. SFC WINDS ARE
ELY AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S F. THIS IS RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING LINE OF ELEVATED STORMS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
FREDERICK OK. AT MID-LEVELS...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80 TO 100 KT
JET WILL OVERSPREAD SWRN AND CNTRL OK BY LATE THIS EVENING ENHANCING
LIFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR RESULTING IN A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF STORM
COVERAGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 03Z FROM LAWTON TO OKC SHOW 90 TO
100 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC.
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ABLE TO TRANSFER THIS WIND TO THE
SFC MAKING MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ALSO...MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM
SUGGESTING HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 02/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35349906 34129912 34119785 34549651 35959658 36089749
            35349906

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.