Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 680
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 22, 2016, 6:25 PM CDT for 11 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 22, 2016, 6:25 PM CDT (23:25 UTC)
- Expired
- May 22, 2016, 8:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Coke County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Irion County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Val Verde County, TX
The radar
The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 150 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2486 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -117 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 831 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 85 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 117 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.4
- Supercell composite
- 5.1
The text
As transmitted.
426
ACUS11 KWNS 222326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222325
TXZ000-230130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX AREA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 222325Z - 230130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY AFFECT THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA OF
SWRN TX THIS EVENING WITH SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER
COVERAGE AND DURATION OF STORMS WARRANT A WW...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF
SANDERSON NWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WRN TX. THE WARM SECTOR EAST
OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
ABOVE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO 3000-4000 J/KG
MLCAPE. HOWEVER...A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTS
IN THIS REGION. A STORM DEVELOPING ALONG DRYLINE JUST EAST OF FORT
STOCKTON APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING. HOWEVER...A LARGE RIGHT-MOVING
SUPERCELL JUST JUST EAST OF MIDLAND MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE SAN
ANGELO CWA. A LEFT SPLIT IN EXTREME NRN MEXICO IS MOVING INTO THE
BORDER COUNTY OF VAL VERDE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. HOWEVER...CONCERN IS THAT A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MIGHT LIMIT DURATION AND COVERAGE
OF STORMS IN THIS REGION.
..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 05/22/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 32140008 31150008 29760085 29860176 29940220 31230184
31950151 32140008SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 9:29 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Bailey, Carson, Castro, Cochran, Dallam and 17 more | 61 min |
| May 22, 12:05 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Armstrong, Bailey, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 21 more | 2 hr |
| May 22, 1:39 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Collingsworth and 23 more | 2 hr |
| May 22, 2:48 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Armstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 40 more | 9 hr |
| May 22, 6:55 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Coke, Crockett, Glasscock, Irion, Midland, Pecos and 7 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.