Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 67

February 1, 20165 counties in Colorado; Cheyenne County, Sherman County, Wallace County, Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 1, 2016, 1:45 PM MST for 5 counties in Colorado; Cheyenne County, Sherman County, Wallace County, Kansas. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 1, 2016, 1:45 PM MST (20:45 UTC)
Expired: Feb 1, 2016, 5:45 PM MST
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Bent County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Wallace County, KS

The radar

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 869 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 151 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 170 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

274 
ACUS11 KWNS 012046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012045 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-020045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0067
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CST MON FEB 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 012045Z - 020045Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NM.  RAPID SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS AND CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE SOON OVER SOUTHEAST CO IN
RESPONSE THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN BACKING
LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS WESTERN KS/EASTERN CO AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION/UPSLOPE FLOW.  THE RESULT WILL BE A BROADENING ZONE
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER SHALLOW
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVER THIS REGION...WHICH MAY KEEP ACCUMULATION
RATES LIMITED THROUGH THE EVENING.  HOWEVER...RATES OF AROUND 1
IN/HOUR APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...IN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FORCING ALSO SUGGEST
THAT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...WHICH
WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES.

..HART.. 02/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40210202 39910292 38930342 38190344 37730313 38050225
            38880144 39510102 40050131 40210202

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.