Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 587

May 10, 20165 counties in Colorado; 18 counties in Kansas; 9 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2016, 2:18 PM MDT for 5 counties in Colorado; 18 counties in Kansas; 9 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 117 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 10, 2016, 2:18 PM MDT (20:18 UTC)
Expired: May 10, 2016, 4:15 PM MDT
In force: 117 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 40%

All 32 counties

Arapahoe County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Decatur County, KS, Gove County, KS, Graham County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Norton County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Smith County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Trego County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Buffalo County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Red Willow County, NE, Webster County, NE

The radar

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 29 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164May 10, 5:30 PM MDT

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 161 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1315 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 30 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 65 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

830 
ACUS11 KWNS 102019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102018 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-102215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0587
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...NWRN KS...AND SRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 102018Z - 102215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION MAY POSE
MAINLY A STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND RISK. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
MAY ALSO OCCUR. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 20Z...A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF CO EWD INTO W-CNTRL KS...AND NEWD INTO S-CNTRL NEB. CU
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN CO INTO NWRN KS HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SIGNS OF
AGITATION AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
ERN MT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AS TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT...WEAK
INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED...WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS.
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 40-50 KT PER RAP MESOANALYSIS WILL
OVERLIE THE MCD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUPPORTING
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AS THEY LIKELY FORM INTO CLUSTERS WITH TIME.
A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT SHOULD
ENCOURAGE STRONG CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS...AND RAP MESOANALYSIS
SUGGESTS DCAPE OF 1000-1200 J/KG IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD
AREA. WHILE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

..GLEASON/HART.. 05/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   39010451 39690440 39660201 40180055 41129953 41129858
            40069844 39149910 38290062 38320185 38420284 39010451

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 9, 6:33 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Brown, Butler, Chase and 31 more	57 min
May 10, 5:14 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Graham, Jewell, Norton, Osborne, Phillips, Rooks and 1 more	91 min
May 10, 5:29 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Jewell, Phillips, Republic, Smith	6 hr
May 9, 9:06 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Burt, Cuming, Dakota, Douglas, Madison, Nemaha and 6 more	54 min
May 10, 1:42 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Antelope, Boone, Boyd, Cedar, Colfax, Cuming and 17 more	93 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.