Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 557
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 8, 2016, 3:21 PM CDT for 40 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 54 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 8, 2016, 3:21 PM CDT (20:21 UTC)
- Expired
- May 8, 2016, 4:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 54 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 40 counties
Barber County, KS, Barton County, KS, Clark County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Ford County, KS, Gove County, KS, Graham County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lane County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Ness County, KS, Norton County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Smith County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Trego County, KS
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 129 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 124 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2934 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 51 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -56 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 138 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
878
ACUS11 KWNS 082022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082021
KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-082115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0557
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 082021Z - 082115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.
DISCUSSION...EARLIER CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER HAS RESULTED IN SLOW
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GREATEST DESTABILIZATION BEING NEAR THE NW OK/S-CNTRL KS BORDER.
CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF THE CAP
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EITHER 1. MOVE NORTHEAST INTO S-CNTRL KS
FROM NW OK -OR- 2. DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH INTERSECTION NEAR DDC. WHILE IT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
HOW STORMS WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AS STORMS TRACK NORTHEAST INTO N-CNTRL KS TOWARD THE WARM
FRONT...A TRANSITION TO BOWING SEGMENTS IS POSSIBLE...WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS IF THIS OCCURS. EASTWARD EXTENT
OF THE THREAT REMAINS UNCLEAR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN KS MUCH OF THE DAY. AS SUCH...THE MOSTLY
LIKELY AREA TO SEE SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING IS
PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL KS AND A WATCH WILL BE LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/08/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 40019933 39979852 39929821 39659773 39069739 37929707
37249700 36979735 36979876 37039951 37229985 37349996
38020050 38790068 39350052 39770009 39899986 40019933SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 9:04 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Decatur, Finney, Gove, Graham, Gray, Kearny and 8 more | 86 min |
| May 8, 1:18 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Comanche, Harper | 117 min |
| May 8, 3:44 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Comanche, Decatur, Edwards, Ellis and 38 more | 8 hr |
| May 8, 6:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Barber, Barton, Butler, Chase and 41 more | 87 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.