Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 549

May 7, 201627 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 7, 2016, 7:14 PM EDT for 27 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 91 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 7, 2016, 7:14 PM EDT (23:14 UTC)
Expired
May 7, 2016, 8:45 PM EDT
In force
91 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%
All 27 counties

Ashland County, OH, Athens County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Crawford County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Huron County, OH, Knox County, OH, Licking County, OH, Madison County, OH, Marion County, OH, Medina County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Richland County, OH, Stark County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Wayne County, OH

The radar

The Cleveland radar (KCLE), 138 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 155 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2016-05-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2016-05-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 191 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1583 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
191 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
388 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

152 
ACUS11 KWNS 072314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072314 
OHZ000-080045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0549
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN OHIO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 072314Z - 080045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN THIS
AREA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK INSTABILITY /AROUND 500-700 J/KG MUCAPE/
AND DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER
ONTARIO.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZATION WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY /WIND AND OR
HAIL/ IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. 
FURTHERMORE...THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...LEAVING ONLY A BRIEF
WINDOW /THROUGH ABOUT 01Z/ FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   39438338 39858342 40668328 41128303 41318259 41308199
            41068138 40728114 40308107 39868119 39488158 39298207
            39318277 39438338

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.