Alert archive / South Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 533

May 2, 201618 counties in Georgia; 25 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 2, 2016, 2:23 PM EDT for 18 counties in Georgia; 25 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 67 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 2, 2016, 2:23 PM EDT (18:23 UTC)
Expired: May 2, 2016, 3:30 PM EDT
In force: 67 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

All 43 counties

Baldwin County, GA, Burke County, GA, Columbia County, GA, Elbert County, GA, Glascock County, GA, Greene County, GA, Hancock County, GA, Jasper County, GA, Jefferson County, GA, Lincoln County, GA, McDuffie County, GA, Morgan County, GA, Oglethorpe County, GA, Putnam County, GA, Richmond County, GA, Taliaferro County, GA, Warren County, GA, Wilkes County, GA, Abbeville County, SC, Aiken County, SC, Barnwell County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Chester County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Edgefield County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Florence County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, McCormick County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Orangeburg County, SC, Richland County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Sumter County, SC, Union County, SC

The radar

The Columbia radar (KCAE), 23 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Charleston AFB, SC (KCHS), launched 12:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 154 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 535 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -42 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 819 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 13 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 30 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

814 
ACUS11 KWNS 021824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021823 
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-021930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0533
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL GA...CNTRL SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 021823Z - 021930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AS INSOLATION CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS REVEAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING THESE
SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J PER KG AND NO
CINH. MAIN FACTOR EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE HIGHER SEVERE COVERAGE IS THE
GENERALLY WEAK WIND PROFILES. RECENT REGIONAL VAD AND MESOANALYSIS
DATA PLACE THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND THEREFORE THE STRONGER
BULK SHEAR -- TO THE NORTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT...A MULTI-CELL MODE
IS FAVORED ACROSS THE MD AREA WITH SOME ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE DUE TO STORM MERGERS AND/OR WATER
LOADING. THE ANTICIPATED LACK OF STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR WW.

..MOSIER/DIAL.. 05/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   33688014 33028145 33058329 33408394 34228289 34808142
            34828060 34747988 34587955 34577946 34297941 33967967
            33688014

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.