Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 511
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 30, 2016, 5:12 AM CDT for 13 counties in Texas. It was in force for 93 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 30, 2016, 5:12 AM CDT (10:12 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 30, 2016, 6:45 AM CDT
- In force
- 93 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
Counties Austin County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Colorado County, TX, Fayette County, TX, Grimes County, TX, Harris County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Lee County, TX, Liberty County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, San Jacinto County, TX, Waller County, TX, Washington County, TX
The radar
The Houston radar (KHGX), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Lake Charles Mun, LA (KLCH), launched 00:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 272 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1365 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -102 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 717 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 77 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 85 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 2.7
The text
As transmitted.
303
ACUS11 KWNS 301012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301012
TXZ000-301145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0511
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 301012Z - 301145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...EARLIER SUPERCELL THAT HAS EVOLVED INTO A SHORT-LINE
SEGMENT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF THE SOUTHEAST TX MCS.
DISCUSSION...CLASSIC SUPERCELL EVOLUTION INTO A SMALL-SCALE BOW ECHO
OCCURRED IN THE AUSTIN VICINITY WITH A MEASURED WIND GUSTS TO 52 KT
AT 0953Z. THIS BOW STRUCTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOLOW
EVIDENT IN 10Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MAY RIDE ALONG A REMNANT
WEST-EAST/ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT ARCS ACROSS COLLEGE STATION
INTO SOUTHEAST TX. WITH AMBIENT WARM SECTOR AIR MASS STILL
CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS...A SWATH OF SEVERE
WIND/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS.
..GRAMS/GOSS.. 04/30/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...
LAT...LON 30369724 30579676 30679602 30689534 30579493 30279482
29889471 29709482 29569607 29369697 29449740 30369724SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 8:07 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bandera, Bastrop, Bell, Bexar, Blanco, Bosque and 29 more | 83 min |
| Apr 29, 8:20 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell and 19 more | 9 hr |
| Apr 29, 8:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Angelina, Bowie, Brazos, Burleson, Camp and 34 more | 94 min |
| Apr 29, 9:58 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Anderson, Angelina, Bell, Bowie, Brazos, Burleson and 47 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 29, 11:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bowie, Camp, Cass, Gregg, Harrison, Marion and 4 more | 93 min |
| Apr 30, 1:46 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bandera, Bexar, Blanco, Comal, Hays, Kendall and 3 more | 59 min |
| Apr 30, 3:23 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Hardin, Harris, Jasper, Jefferson, Liberty, Newton and 7 more | 97 min |
| Apr 30, 5:11 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange, Sabine and 1 more | 9 hr |
| Apr 30, 5:27 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Austin, Brazoria, Brazos, Burleson, Chambers, Colorado and 11 more | 6 hr |
| Apr 30, 7:38 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chambers, Fort Bend, Hardin, Harris, Jefferson, Liberty and 1 more | 67 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.