Alert archive / Louisiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 480

April 28, 20164 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 28, 2016, 3:56 AM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 28, 2016, 3:56 AM CDT (08:56 UTC)
Expired
Apr 28, 2016, 6:00 AM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
5%
All 26 counties

Baldwin County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Escambia County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, Ascension Parish, LA, Assumption Parish, LA, Iberville Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Orleans Parish, LA, Saint Bernard Parish, LA, Saint Charles Parish, LA, Saint James Parish, LA, Saint John the Baptist Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Jackson County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Perry County, MS, Stone County, MS

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 00:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 80 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Slidell Radar S, LA at 00:00Z on 2016-04-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 148 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Slidell Radar S, LA at 00:00Z on 2016-04-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 261 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
148 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-346 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1552 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
261 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
369 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

080 
ACUS11 KWNS 280857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280856 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-281100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL GULF COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 280856Z - 281100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH STORM COVERAGE POTENTIALLY BECOMING
WIDELY SCATTERED FROM SOUTHEAST LA TO THE WEST FL PANHANDLE.

DISCUSSION...MODEST LOW-LEVEL WAA IS SUPPORTING AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA INTO SOUTHWEST AL. UPSTREAM AIR MASS
IS CHARACTERIZED BY 70-75 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER SOUTHEAST LA
AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS. 00Z LCH/LIX RAOBS SAMPLED STEEP 700-500 MB
LAPSE OF 7-7.5 DEG C/KM. WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES PERSISTING WITHIN
THIS LAYER PER LIX VWP DATA...IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS PERIPHERY OF
THE EML HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
WITH MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VEERING OF THE WIND
PROFILE WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED UPDRAFT ROTATION
WHICH COULD FOSTER A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MID-MORNING.

..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 04/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30249149 30689085 31118932 31348825 31378749 31198674
            30998642 30698635 30538641 30268734 30048890 29638990
            29719133 29959175 30249149

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 28, 10:02 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEscambia2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.