Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 474

April 27, 201612 counties in Alabama; 38 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 27, 2016, 1:34 PM CDT for 12 counties in Alabama; 38 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 27, 2016, 1:34 PM CDT (18:34 UTC)
Expired
Apr 27, 2016, 4:00 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%
All 50 counties

Baldwin County, AL, Choctaw County, AL, Clarke County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Washington County, AL, Attala County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Clay County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Jackson County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Leake County, MS, Lee County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Perry County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Scott County, MS, Smith County, MS, Stone County, MS, Wayne County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 134 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2016-04-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 705 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2016-04-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 94 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
705 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-127 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
593 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
94 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
37 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

765 
ACUS11 KWNS 271834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271834 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-272100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS...WRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 271834Z - 272100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN AL AND
WRN AL THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WW ISSUANCE MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM SRN MS NWD ACROSS ERN MS INTO WRN TN...ALONG
WHICH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. SFC TEMPS ACROSS ERN MS
AND WRN AL HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 80 F THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED TO
BE IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE FROM COLUMBUS MS SWD TO THE GULF
COAST. AS INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KTS...A FEW DAMAGING WET
DOWNBURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH MULTICELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 04/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30418750 30108842 30028937 30938969 32678968 33708986
            34298971 34488863 33758791 31878732 30418750

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 27, 3:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColbert, Cullman, Fayette, Franklin, Jefferson, Lauderdale and 6 more2 hr
Apr 27, 7:30 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Wilkinson2 hr
Apr 27, 7:54 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Amite, Claiborne, Copiah, Covington, Forrest and 20 more7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.