Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 445
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 25, 2016, 6:02 PM EDT for 24 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 88 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 25, 2016, 6:02 PM EDT (22:02 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 25, 2016, 7:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 88 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 24 counties
Allegan County, MI, Barry County, MI, Berrien County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Kent County, MI, Mason County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Muskegon County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oceana County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Van Buren County, MI
The radar
The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 29 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 192 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1851 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 43 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 306 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 326 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
937
ACUS11 KWNS 252203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252202
MIZ000-INZ000-252330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF LOWER MI AND FAR NRN IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 252202Z - 252330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS SERN WI AND
NRN IL IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DE-AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...
THEY MAY DECREASE IN INTENSITY SLIGHTLY GIVEN COOL LAKE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THEY MAY RE-INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE
ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI AND FAR NRN IND OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
ACROSS THIS REGION...THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH SFC
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S BENEATH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. THE NRN EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE RISK WILL
LIKELY BE CONSTRAINED BY A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM ROUGHLY
KMBL TO KRNP TO KARB ACROSS LOWER MI. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM
INTENSITY CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THE NEED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
..GLEASON/DARROW.. 04/25/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 43098684 44048656 43788562 43488479 43008408 42108419
41878487 41618595 41638682 41978702 43098684SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2:40 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Berrien | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.