Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 417
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 19, 2016, 1:15 PM CDT for 19 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 19, 2016, 1:15 PM CDT (18:15 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 19, 2016, 3:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Irion County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Upton County, TX, Val Verde County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 106 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 115 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -33 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 598 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 49 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 183 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 109 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
100
ACUS11 KWNS 191815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191815
TXZ000-192045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0417
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 191815Z - 192045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER SWRN TX.
DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE STRATUS ACROSS WRN TX
WITH CU NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 70S F. ELY SFC WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MID TO UPPER 50S F
DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE WITH MODESTLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT. WLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
LONG-LIVED AND POSSIBLY SPLITTING CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WITH
1.00 TO 1.75 IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS STORM
COVERAGE MAY BE TOO LOW FOR A WATCH...BUT THE CONDITIONAL SEVERE
HAIL THREAT GIVEN A STORM IS HIGH.
..JEWELL/HART.. 04/19/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 30390294 32760293 32940211 32950094 31490085 30340079
29530119 29760171 29850223 30390294SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 10:08 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cameron, Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Starr, Willacy, Zapata | 67 min |
| Apr 19, 12:48 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baylor, Briscoe, Childress, Cottle, Crosby, Dickens and 14 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 19, 3:48 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Cottle, Dickens, Foard and 7 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 19, 6:11 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crane, Crockett and 17 more | 94 min |
| Apr 19, 6:32 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Cooke, Denton, Dickens and 23 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.