Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 346

April 8, 20167 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 8, 2016, 4:05 PM CDT for 7 counties in Texas. It was in force for 115 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 8, 2016, 4:05 PM CDT (21:05 UTC)
Expired
Apr 8, 2016, 6:00 PM CDT
In force
115 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Brewster County, TX, Culberson County, TX, El Paso County, TX, Hudspeth County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reeves County, TX

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 250 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2016-04-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2016-04-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 127 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2172 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
127 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
209 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

985 
ACUS11 KWNS 082105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082105 
TXZ000-NMZ000-082300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0405 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX THROUGH SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 082105Z - 082300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN
TX INTO SRN NM AND PRODUCE A COUPLE INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND
DOWNBURST WINDS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR
A WW.

DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON CUMULUS CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX WHERE DIABATIC WARMING HAS BOOSTED TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR 80F WITH DEWPOINTS FROM 45-50F CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL
MLCAPE /UP TO 500 J/KG/. PRESENCE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND WEAK
FORCING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE...BUT VERTICAL
SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL AND DOWNBURST
WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

LAT...LON   29820282 29130315 29510414 30610490 31470602 32170738
            32310500 30450242 29820282

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 8, 4:05 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrewster, Culberson, El Paso, Hudspeth, Jeff Davis, Presidio and 1 more115 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.