Mesoscale Discussion 342

Issued

Apr 7, 2016, 4:22 AM EDT (08:22 UTC)

Expired

Apr 7, 2016, 6:45 AM EDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

40%

The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

199 
ACUS11 KWNS 070822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070822 
NCZ000-SCZ000-071045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0342
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT THU APR 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 070822Z - 071045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS --ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE-- WILL PROBABLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH THE NRN
FRACTURED SEGMENT NEAR CLT AND A SRN SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM 25 MI NE
OF CAE SSWD TO 40 MI S OF AGS.  A FRACTURED COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED
OVER WRN NC EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AT 08Z AND
HAS INCREASINGLY BECOME SPATIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
LINE.  A NARROW PLUME OF UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS HAS INFILTRATED SRN SC
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE WHEREAS FARTHER N AND E RETARDED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN HAS ONLY LED TO LOWER TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS
FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST.  

STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT --ASSOCIATED WITH DCVA
WITH A VORT MAX OVER THE GA/SC VICINITY-- WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
CAROLINAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.  DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION WITH COOLING TEMPS TO AOB -19 DEG C AT H5 AND SLIGHT
THETA-E GAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ACT TO WEAKLY DESTABILIZE
THE AIRMASS EARLY THIS MORNING.  CURRENTLY THINKING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE OVER THE
ERN NC COASTAL PLAIN.  HOWEVER...A RECENTLY MEASURED 44-KT WIND GUST
AT KCAE AT LEAST SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
MAY OCCUR ON A LOCALIZED BASIS SOONER RATHER THAN LATER WITH THE
MOST INTENSE PORTIONS OF THE SQUALL LINE.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 04/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON   35277618 32987943 33098043 33428108 34398066 35627834
            36027722 35857639 35277618

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.