Mesoscale Discussion 340

Issued

Apr 6, 2016, 7:59 PM CDT (00:59 UTC)

Expired

Apr 6, 2016, 10:00 PM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

20%

The Maxwell AFB radar (KMXX), 23 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

206 
ACUS11 KWNS 070100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070059 
GAZ000-ALZ000-070300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0340
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT WED APR 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AL...FAR W-CNTRL/NW GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 070059Z - 070300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO
MERIT WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS THREE LINES OF CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS AND AL...EACH ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENT
SURFACE FEATURES. WESTERNMOST STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT...STORMS FROM N-CNTRL AL SWWD INTO W-CNTRL AL ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...AND THE EASTERNMOST STORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE WINDS. HIGHEST SVR THREAT
WILL BE RELATED TO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SEWD INTO THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL AND ERN AL. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FACTOR
LIMITING A GREATER SVR THREAT WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR MLCAPE TO
REMAIN BELOW 500 J PER KG. EVEN WITH THIS LIMITED INSTABILITY...A
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL. 

FARTHER E...LEAD STORMS ON THE AL/GA BORDER SUPPORTED BY CONFLUENCE
OF THE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
THIS HOSTILE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY LEAD A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THAT ACTIVITY. STORMS TO THE S AND W /IN CALHOUN AND
TALLADEGA COUNTIES/ MAY BE FAR ENOUGH W TO INTERSECT THE BETTER
MOISTURE /AND RESULTING INSTABILITY/ AS IT RETURNS NWD INTO W-CNTRL
GA...RESULTING IN AN ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 04/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   33718482 32978448 32628441 32338450 31938489 31818516
            31698555 31688578 31738648 31798679 31978717 32508744
            33378708 34088624 34228558 34008501 33718482

Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.