Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 337
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 5, 2016, 6:07 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 5, 2016, 6:07 PM CDT (23:07 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 5, 2016, 8:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 61 counties
Fremont County, IA, Page County, IA, Anderson County, KS, Atchison County, KS, Barton County, KS, Brown County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Geary County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marion County, KS, Marshall County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Morris County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Osage County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Riley County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Holt County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Platte County, MO, Gage County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Richardson County, NE
The radar
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 118 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1988 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 302 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 444 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
738
ACUS11 KWNS 052308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052307
IAZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-060130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0337
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 PM CDT TUE APR 05 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO NERN KS...NWRN MO AND SERN NEB...SWRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 052307Z - 060130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH MAINLY SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING FROM CNTRL KS
INTO NWRN MO/SERN NEB AND SWRN IA.
DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SWRN KS...WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL INTO NERN KS. THIS
TROUGH IS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE AXIS WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
WAS SURGING SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...AND WILL ALSO BE
DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB LATER TODAY.
STRONG SLY SFC WINDS WERE ALREADY PRESENT AT 23Z BENEATH WHAT WILL
BECOME AN EVEN STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
THE CNTRL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED WITH
MEAN BL DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S F WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS OVER ERN
KS...BUT STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STORMS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES DO
EXIST...AND THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW STORM CORES TO PRODUCE MARGINAL
HAIL ESPECIALLY N OF THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS DOWNDRAFTS DEVELOP INTO THE DEEPLY-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER.
..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 04/05/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 38529924 39509765 40399685 40809637 40999573 40899513
40589478 39939463 39869463 39149466 38309506 37949537
37409675 37269790 37269855 37279883 37599939 37829957
38199956 38529924Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.