Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 3

January 6, 2016Nueces County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 6, 2016, 5:35 PM CST for Nueces County, Texas. It was in force for 85 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 6, 2016, 5:35 PM CST (23:35 UTC)
Expired: Jan 6, 2016, 7:00 PM CST
In force: 85 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 5%

County Nueces County, TX

The radar

The Corpus Christi radar (KCRP), 15 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 12:00Z, 11.6 hours before the alert went out and 3 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 573 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 181 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 283 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

242 
ACUS11 KWNS 062335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062335 
TXZ000-070100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 PM CST WED JAN 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 062335Z - 070100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR TSTM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES EVOLVING WITHIN A N/S BAND OF
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION E/NE OF A SFC MESO-LOW ANALYZED NEAR ALICE
TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY PRIMARILY ELEVATED...AS VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY EARLIER SUGGESTED AGITATED/GLACIATING CUMULUS EVOLVING ATOP
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED BY
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A HIGH-LEVEL
JET STREAK OVERLYING THE AREA IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
ASSOCIATED VERTICAL CIRCULATION RELATED TO THE EXIT REGION OF THIS
JET STREAK SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOSTER LOW-LEVEL POLEWARD FLUXES OF
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE. THE CRP VWP INDICATES 40-50 KT OF MID-LEVEL
WSWLYS ABOVE A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE THAT COULD CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...AS EVIDENT WITH A CELL OVER NRN
SAN PATRICIO COUNTY. OTHER CELLS EVOLVING ALONG THE WARM ADVECTION
PLUME FARTHER S MAY MATURE/INTENSIFY. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH OVERALL WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
TEND TO LIMIT THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS. ALSO...LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVERALL...PRECLUDING ANY MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED SVR RISK.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 01/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...

LAT...LON   27509762 27779764 28179717 28109691 27679722 27489741
            27509762

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.