Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 294

March 30, 201612 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 30, 2016, 7:17 PM CDT for 12 counties in Texas. It was in force for 58 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 30, 2016, 7:17 PM CDT (00:17 UTC)
Expired: Mar 30, 2016, 8:15 PM CDT
In force: 58 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Anderson County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Limestone County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Rains County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 118 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 70 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -210 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1869 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 187 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 208 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

622 
ACUS11 KWNS 310017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310017 
TXZ000-310115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0294
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0717 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 62...

VALID 310017Z - 310115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 62
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST AHEAD OF A COUPLE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...ONE THAT IS EXITING THE METROPLEX AND THE
OTHER APPROACHING THE WACO AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY AND PORTIONS OF
WW 62 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 0015Z...A PAIR OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WERE
LOCATED FROM JUST E/S OF THE METROPLEX INTO BOSQUE COUNTY. PRIMARY
SEVERE RISK SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL WITH THE SRN MOST OF THESE CLUSTERS
/APPROACHING THE WACO AREA/ WITH WIND THE MAIN RISK WITH THE NRN
CLUSTER. WITH UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS PERSISTING AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. BUT INCREASINGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG WITH GRADUAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION MAY RESULT IN A SLOWLY SUBSIDING RISK.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...ONSET OF NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER
COOLING AND PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING SHOULD MITIGATE ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT TO THE W.

..GRAMS.. 03/31/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   32809629 32949572 32569554 31919537 31599537 31339627
            31269721 31399773 31759783 32529690 32809629

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.