Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 281
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 29, 2016, 1:17 PM EDT for 16 counties in Florida. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 29, 2016, 1:17 PM EDT (17:17 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 29, 2016, 3:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Broward County, FL, Charlotte County, FL, Collier County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Glades County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hendry County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Lee County, FL, Manatee County, FL, Martin County, FL, Miami-Dade County, FL, Monroe County, FL, Okeechobee County, FL, Palm Beach County, FL, Sarasota County, FL
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 5.3 hours before the alert went out and 130 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1606 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -26 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 866 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 38 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 10 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 53 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.3
- Supercell composite
- 1.4
The text
As transmitted.
457
ACUS11 KWNS 291717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291717
FLZ000-291945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 291717Z - 291945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA.
DISCUSSION...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE A STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PRECEDING WELL-ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTER EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PENINSULA. INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...ALONG WITH
CLUSTER-RELATED-COLD POOL UPLIFT AS IT NEARS THE COAST...WILL
SUPPORT MULTIPLE CORRIDORS OF INCREASINGLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK...RELATIVELY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE BUOYANCY...AS SAMPLED BY 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS...IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASINGLY STRONG
/SUPERCELL-ADEQUATE/ SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 03/29/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...
LAT...LON 27618297 27698156 27298027 25228022 25328115 26528229
27618297Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.