Mesoscale Discussion 276

Issued

Mar 26, 2016, 10:01 PM CDT (03:01 UTC)

Expired

Mar 27, 2016, 12:30 AM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

5%

Counties Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Grady County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Childress County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Foard County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 5 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

953 
ACUS11 KWNS 270302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270301 
OKZ000-TXZ000-270530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0276
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1001 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...AND VICINITY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 270301Z - 270530Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR
IN THE 0330-0500Z TIME FRAME ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN TX PANHANDLE
AND NERN TX SOUTH PLAINS. THEREAFTER...TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
EWD OVER PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AND
PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE ANTICIPATED ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE SVR RISK IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...RAOBS AT 00Z SAMPLED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SRN GREAT PLAINS...WITH NORMAN AND AMARILLO
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8 C/KM ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OK AND NW TX. MEANWHILE...WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS
A LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE EMERGING OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND
OVERTAKING A SFC FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE TULSA AREA SWWD TO WRN N TX
AND WWD ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS. THE INTERACTION OF IMPULSE-PRECEDING
DCVA WITH BAROCLINICITY RELATED TO THE BOUNDARY IS YIELDING INTENSE
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND VICINITY. ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS IS BEING AMPLIFIED WITHIN
THE STEEP-LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT...WITH A RESULTANT SHIELD OF
PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AT PRESENT.
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE BECOMING DEFINED AT THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS SHIELD BETWEEN AMARILLO AND CHILDRESS...WITH CG
LIGHTNING NOW OCCURRING WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

AS THE STRONG ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD AND INTERCEPTS A
NWD-EXTENDING PLUME OF POORLY MODIFIED RETURN MOISTURE OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS -- E.G. SUPPORTING PW AROUND
0.5-0.6 INCH PER GPS DATA -- A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF TSTM
INTENSIFICATION/DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE 0330-0500Z
TIME FRAME. OFFSETTING THE OVERALL DEARTH OF RETURN MOISTURE...THE
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MUCAPE -- ON THE
ORDER OF 250-750 J/KG -- AMIDST AROUND 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
FOR INTENSE/ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. A FEW SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES MAY EVOLVE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL...AND SMALL ELEVATED BOWING SEGMENTS COULD FORM AS A RESULT OF
LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE INTERACTIONS/AMALGAMATIONS WITH SPORADIC STRONG
WIND GUSTS /PARTICULARLY NEAR AND S OF THE RED RIVER/. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO PENETRATE A NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER WILL
TEND TO BE RESTRICTED BY NOCTURNAL DIABATIC SFC COOLING...AND
N-OF-BOUNDARY COLD ADVECTION...THUS MITIGATING THE SVR-WIND
POTENTIAL.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND THE ASSOCIATED ISOLATED SVR
POTENTIAL...WILL SPREAD EWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOULD BE
WEAKENING LATER IN THE NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE INTERSTATE-35
CORRIDOR AND ENCOUNTERS GROWING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE OVERALL
PAUCITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND RELATED LIMITED BUOYANCY...ARE
PRESENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEP THE SVR RISK SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED TO
PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/HART.. 03/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33869944 34010033 34340071 34870015 35049967 35149851
            35009762 34549737 34069750 33779790 33869944

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.