Alert archive / Maine / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 271

March 25, 2016Aroostook County, Maine

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 25, 2016, 3:25 AM EDT for Aroostook County, Maine. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 25, 2016, 3:25 AM EDT (07:25 UTC)
Expired: Mar 25, 2016, 7:30 AM EDT
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

County Aroostook County, ME

The radar

The Caribou radar (KCBW), 117 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Caribou, ME (KCAR), launched 00:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2083 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 94 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -61 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 195 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

301 
ACUS11 KWNS 250725
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250725 
MEZ000-251130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0271
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN MAINE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 250725Z - 251130Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR...WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z. ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES
EXCEEDING 0.05 INCHES/3 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO
PROVINCE AT 07Z WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND THEN SOUTHEAST TO THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCES.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ON STRENGTHENING 850-MB FLOW...LARGELY
CONTRIBUTING TO THE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ON REGIONAL
RADAR COMPOSITES. WITHIN THIS LARGER-SCALE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...LATEST RAP GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
P-TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SNOWFALL
RATES OF AROUND ONE INCH/HOUR DEVELOPING THROUGH 09Z AND CONTINUING
BEYOND 12Z.

ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OF AN INCREASING ABOVE-FREEZING LAYER/WARM NOSE SUGGEST A
MIXED P-TYPE BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES GREATER
THAN 0.05 INCHES/3 HOURS POSSIBLE.

..BUNTING.. 03/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...

LAT...LON   46326998 46786994 47186952 47446922 47406904 47256909
            47196898 47266871 47326836 47316815 47066782 46716780
            46306777 45926789 45926858 46006959 46326998

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 25, 8:01 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Androscoggin, Franklin, Kennebec, Oxford, Penobscot, Somerset	4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Maine, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.