Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 270

March 24, 20166 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 24, 2016, 9:36 PM EDT for 6 counties in Florida. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 24, 2016, 9:36 PM EDT (01:36 UTC)
Expired: Mar 25, 2016, 12:00 AM EDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 5%

Counties Brevard County, FL, Indian River County, FL, Orange County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Seminole County, FL, Volusia County, FL

The radar

The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 79 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 612 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -19 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 711 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 167 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 199 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.5
Supercell composite: 5.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

561 
ACUS11 KWNS 250136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250136 
FLZ000-250400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0270
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0836 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN FLORIDA PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 250136Z - 250400Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG-TSTM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA. WHILE AN
ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SVR TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WW ISSUANCE
WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS A LOW-LATITUDE
MID/HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAX ADVANCING ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO FL...WITH EXIT-REGION ASCENT MAINTAINING DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTION. THE FINAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY
INDICATED INLAND CU BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED IMMEDIATELY PRIOR
TO DUSK...AS THE STRENGTHENING DEEP ASCENT OVERSPREAD AN AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIMITED MLCINH. THE
00Z RAOBS AT MIAMI AND TAMPA SAMPLED MODERATE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...WITH AMBIENT
MOISTURE SLOWING NOCTURNAL GAINS IN MLCINH WHILE LOW-LEVEL WAA
CONTINUES. TSTMS -- PRESENTLY MOST INTENSE FROM VOLUSIA TO
POLK/OSCEOLA COUNTIES -- WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS DEEP ASCENT CONTINUES. THE VWP AT MLB IS SAMPLING AMPLE DEEP
SHEAR -- E.G. AROUND 50-60 KT IN THE 0-6-KM LAYER -- THAT MAY
SUSTAIN BROAD STORM-SCALE CIRCULATIONS WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY. PRECIPITATION-LOADING PROCESSES MAY
SUPPORT A DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO. OVERALL WEAK FLOW IN THE 1-2-KM
LAYER AND FREQUENT CELL INTERACTIONS WILL GREATLY MITIGATE THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL DESPITE A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE
LOW LEVELS.

..COHEN/HART.. 03/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   27738171 28808155 29228105 28618063 27638052 27428146
            27738171

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 24, 8:11 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Franklin, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Madison and 3 more	64 min
Mar 25, 2:52 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brevard, Broward, Indian River, Martin, Okeechobee, Palm Beach and 1 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.