Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 265

March 24, 20165 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 24, 2016, 12:54 PM CDT for 5 states. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 24, 2016, 12:54 PM CDT (17:54 UTC)
Expired: Mar 24, 2016, 3:30 PM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 40%

All 160 counties

Champaign County, IL, Clark County, IL, Coles County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Iroquois County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Richland County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Wabash County, IL, White County, IL, Bartholomew County, IN, Benton County, IN, Blackford County, IN, Boone County, IN, Brown County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Cass County, IN, Clark County, IN, Clay County, IN, Clinton County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Daviess County, IN, Dearborn County, IN, Decatur County, IN, Delaware County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Fountain County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Gibson County, IN, Grant County, IN, Greene County, IN, Hamilton County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Hendricks County, IN, Henry County, IN, Howard County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Jasper County, IN, Jay County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Knox County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Madison County, IN, Marion County, IN, Martin County, IN, Miami County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Montgomery County, IN, Morgan County, IN, Newton County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Orange County, IN, Owen County, IN, Parke County, IN, Perry County, IN, Pike County, IN, Posey County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Putnam County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Rush County, IN, Scott County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Sullivan County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Tippecanoe County, IN, Tipton County, IN, Union County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Vermillion County, IN, Vigo County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Warren County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Washington County, IN, Wayne County, IN, White County, IN, Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Boone County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Casey County, KY, Christian County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grant County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Henry County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Logan County, KY, Marion County, KY, McLean County, KY, Meade County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Union County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Webster County, KY, Woodford County, KY, Butler County, OH, Darke County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Preble County, OH, Macon County, TN

The radar

The Indianapolis radar (KIND), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 216 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1182 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 58 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 131 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

961 
ACUS11 KWNS 241755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241754 
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-242030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0265
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IL...SRN AND CNTRL IND...SW OH...WRN AND
CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 241754Z - 242030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM NEAR THE IL-IND STATE-LINE EWD ACROSS PARTS
OF KY AND IND INTO SW OH. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 997 MB LOW OVER NE IL WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW SWD ACROSS ECNTRL IL INTO
FAR WRN KY. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS WRN TN...WRN KY AND SW IND WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING HAS BEEN SLOW TO
OCCUR TODAY IN THE OH VALLEY...WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE MOIST CORRIDOR WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY ALONG SEVERAL
BANDS AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST WSR-88D VWPS FROM INDIANAPOLIS AND PADUCAH SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR
IN THE 55 TO 60 KT RANGE WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW AT 1 KM AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THIS MAY SUPPORT MULTICELL LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE SFC TEMPS
ARE ABLE TO WARM ALONG ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MAY ALSO SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 03/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...
ILX...

LAT...LON   40328460 41218624 41328731 40958783 40098824 38828836
            38628841 37548841 36798779 36628707 36518580 36898481
            38368422 40328460

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 24, 4:55 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Fleming, Grant, Harrison and 7 more	3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.