Mesoscale Discussion 262

Issued

Mar 24, 2016, 2:52 AM CDT (07:52 UTC)

Expired

Mar 24, 2016, 5:15 AM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

20%

The Houston radar (KHGX), 129 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

699 
ACUS11 KWNS 240752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240752 
TXZ000-241015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SE TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 240752Z - 241015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL STG-SVR GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FROM
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MOVING EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA DURING PRE-DAWN
HOURS.  WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM...BUT CONVECTIVE/COLD-POOL
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY UPSCALE ORGANIZATION/
INTENSIFICATION TO THE CONTRARY.

DISCUSSION...BEST-ORGANIZED SMALL-SCALE COLD POOL AND POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS APPEAR TO BE WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EWD OUT OF AUS...
WHERE 58-KT GUST WAS MEASURED AT 707Z.  OTHER CONVECTION NEAR SAT
ALSO MAY PRODUCE MRGL-SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY STG/DAMAGING GUSTS WHILE
MOVING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND S OF I-10 DURING NEXT FEW
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY OUTFLOW
FROM AUS-AREA COMPLEX.  MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS BEHIND
SHALLOW...PREFRONTAL...OUTFLOW/WIND-SHIFT BOUNDARIES...WHICH WILL
TEND TO AUGMENT SFC STATIC STABILITY AND LIMIT ACCESS TO UNMODIFIED
WARM-SECTOR AIR WHERE MID-UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS ARE COMMON. 
ALSO...OUTFLOW/WIND-SHIFT LINES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VEERED
PRECONVECTIVE FLOW AND RELATED REDUCTION IN STORM-RELATIVE NEAR-SFC
WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.  

STILL...FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH INITIALLY PREFRONTAL TSTMS IN
THIS CORRIDOR...PERHAPS REINFORCED FROM REAR BY FRONTAL CAA WEDGE
WITH TIME...MAY HELP CONVECTION TO PERSIST DEEPER THAN INDICATED BY
OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED CINH FIELDS ALONE...INTO MORE STRONGLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SE TX.  500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD BE COMMON IN
PRECONVECTIVE SETTING...AMIDST 30-45-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. 
MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT DO NOT APPEAR CONVECTIVELY MODULATED
ALSO INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL COOLING AROUND 700 MB TIMED CLOSE TO
EXTRAPOLATED ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION AT VARIOUS LOCALES ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA.

..EDWARDS/DIAL.. 03/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28779929 29549764 30809624 30869541 30779426 29799416
            29599425 29449465 29319472 28899530 28519614 28369638
            28309644 28069684 28499832 28689911 28779929

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.