Mesoscale Discussion 259

Issued

Mar 23, 2016, 10:39 PM EDT (02:39 UTC)

Expired

Mar 24, 2016, 4:45 AM EDT

In force

6 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

517 
ACUS11 KWNS 240240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240239 
MIZ000-WIZ000-240845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0259
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0939 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN WI EWD TO NRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 240239Z - 240845Z

SUMMARY...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...WITH SNOWFALL RATES TO 1
INCH PER HOUR...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A LOOP OF MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES PRECIPITATION BANDS
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM THE WAUSAU WI AREA EWD TOWARD THE
ALPENA MI AREA...WITH ANOTHER BAND BECOMING ESTABLISHED FARTHER S
ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL WI THROUGH THE GREEN BAY AREA AND EWD TO THE N
END OF SAGINAW BAY. THIS ACTIVITY LIES WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE
ALOFT EXTENDING WELL TO THE ENE OF A COMPACT MID-LEVEL CYCLONE
CROSSING THE CNTRL CONUS PER A WATER VAPOR LOOP.

FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDING INTO A SATURATED DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE ALOFT ARE ALREADY SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED BANDS. PERSISTENT LOW/MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASING WAA OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE
CYCLONE THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL FACILITATE THEIR SUSTENANCE AND
PERHAPS INTENSIFICATION AMIDST DEEP SUB-FREEZING AIR. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE...AS WELL.

EVENTUALLY...A MASS OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION PRESENTLY
CROSSING IA WILL MERGE WITH THE PERSISTENT...MORE-STRATIFORM...
AFOREMENTIONED PRECIP AND ALSO SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SNOWFALL RATES TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. WARMING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED WAA MAY
ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET TO MIX WITH THE
PRECIPITATION FROM PARTS OF CNTRL WI TO CNTRL LOWER MI BY LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO OF NOTE...STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF ERN 
WI -- PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST.

..COHEN.. 03/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON   44068470 44118653 43898812 43598939 43868990 44288998
            44788978 45188920 45448728 45468457 45328344 44858300
            44348294 44118345 44068470

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.