Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 25
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 17, 2016, 2:31 AM EST for 30 counties in Florida. It was in force for 89 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 17, 2016, 2:31 AM EST (07:31 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 17, 2016, 4:00 AM EST
- In force
- 89 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 30 counties
Brevard County, FL, Broward County, FL, Charlotte County, FL, Citrus County, FL, Collier County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Glades County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hendry County, FL, Hernando County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Hillsborough County, FL, Indian River County, FL, Lake County, FL, Lee County, FL, Manatee County, FL, Martin County, FL, Miami-Dade County, FL, Monroe County, FL, Okeechobee County, FL, Orange County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Palm Beach County, FL, Pasco County, FL, Pinellas County, FL, Polk County, FL, Saint Lucie County, FL, Sarasota County, FL, Seminole County, FL, Sumter County, FL
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 00:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 83 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1407 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 64 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 12 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 106 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
581 ACUS11 KWNS 170732 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170731 FLZ000-170900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0025 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 4... VALID 170731Z - 170900Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 4 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE TORNADO THREAT IS INCREASING ALONG PARTS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FL COAST. EXPECT THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL TO EXIST IN THIS AREA THROUGH AROUND 10-11Z. DISCUSSION...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH AROUND 10Z FROM NEAR TBW SOUTHWARD TO THE WESTERN KEYS AS CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ONSHORE. A 06Z RAOB FROM TBW SHOWED A VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS SOMEWHAT STABLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER AND DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD VNC...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND MUCAPE IS NEAR 500 J/KG. SOME WARMING AND MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT EXPECT THE GREATEST NEAR-TERM TORNADO THREAT TO EXIST FROM NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF TBW TO THE WESTERN KEYS. IN FACT...A SUPERCELL OFFSHORE FROM SARASOTA COUNTY HAS BEEN SHOWING MODERATE TO STRONG LOW/MIDLEVEL ROTATION THE LAST HOUR OR SO...INDICATING WHERE BETTER THERMODYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH STRONG SHEAR PARAMETERS. ..LEITMAN.. 01/17/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 29068334 29038050 24387955 24388227 29068334
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 11:03 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry and 7 more | 117 min |
| Jan 17, 12:47 AM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto and 25 more | 8 hr |
| Jan 17, 5:08 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades and 15 more | 2 hr |
| Jan 17, 6:38 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Palm Beach | 97 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.