Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 232

March 17, 20167 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 17, 2016, 10:06 PM CDT for 7 counties in Florida. It was in force for 54 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 17, 2016, 10:06 PM CDT (03:06 UTC)
Expired
Mar 17, 2016, 11:00 PM CDT
In force
54 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL

The radar

The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 00:00Z, 3.1 hours before the alert went out and 218 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 00:00Z on 2016-03-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 56 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 00:00Z on 2016-03-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 110 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
56 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-132 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
965 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
110 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
90 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

126 
ACUS11 KWNS 180307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180306 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-180400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 180306Z - 180400Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS DO NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...EXPANSIVE MCS IS PROGRESSING ESEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
GULF STATES WITH STRONGEST PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY NOW ADVANCING
ACROSS OKALOOSA COUNTY FL.  TRAILING SQUALL LINE IS MIGRATING ACROSS
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND IS LIKELY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DUE TO EARLIER
CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION.  WHILE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
ORGANIZED AS IT SPREADS ESEWD...LATEST THINKING IS WEAK LAPSE
RATES/MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT HAIL GROWTH AND SEVERE HAIL IS
UNLIKELY.  FOR THIS REASON A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH DOES NOT
APPEAR WARRANTED.

..DARROW/GOSS.. 03/18/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30068794 30978637 30908492 30078497 29558723 30068794

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.