Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 23

January 16, 201614 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 16, 2016, 11:10 AM CST for 14 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 16, 2016, 11:10 AM CST (17:10 UTC)
Expired
Jan 16, 2016, 1:45 PM CST
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Aransas County, TX, Brazoria County, TX, Calhoun County, TX, DeWitt County, TX, Fort Bend County, TX, Galveston County, TX, Goliad County, TX, Jackson County, TX, Karnes County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Matagorda County, TX, Refugio County, TX, Victoria County, TX, Wharton County, TX

The radar

The Houston radar (KHGX), 152 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 12:00Z, 5.2 hours before the alert went out and 147 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Corpus Christi, TX at 12:00Z on 2016-01-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Corpus Christi, TX at 12:00Z on 2016-01-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 134 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1805 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
134 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
238 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

040 
ACUS11 KWNS 161711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161710 
TXZ000-161945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 161710Z - 161945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TX COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A RASH OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO IN A
REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING SFC LOW.
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW A FEW OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE
HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 01/16/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   27909687 28249708 28519750 28679814 29039815 29889564
            29759528 29519491 29199473 28719555 28189655 27909687

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.