Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 221

March 16, 2016Gogebic County, Michigan; 5 counties in Minnesota; 6 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 16, 2016, 5:42 AM CDT for Gogebic County, Michigan; 5 counties in Minnesota; 6 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 16, 2016, 5:42 AM CDT (10:42 UTC)
Expired: Mar 16, 2016, 11:45 AM CDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Gogebic County, MI, Carlton County, MN, Cook County, MN, Lake County, MN, Pine County, MN, Saint Louis County, MN, Ashland County, WI, Bayfield County, WI, Douglas County, WI, Iron County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Washburn County, WI

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 203 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 458 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 151 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 148 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

282 
ACUS11 KWNS 161043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161042 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-161645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...NRN WI...AND FAR WRN
UPPER MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 161042Z - 161645Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH 17Z.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 1015Z...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
UPPER LOW OVER ERN WI...MOVING SLOWLY NEWD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN CANADA SEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE OCCURRING OVER THE MCD AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT THROUGH THE MORNING. RECENT RADAR LOOPS SHOW A
BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM NERN MN INTO
NRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. A
TRANSITION TO HEAVY WET SNOW HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MN ARROWHEAD. WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO THE W OF A 988 MB SFC LOW ALSO OVER
ERN WI...PRECIPITATION ACROSS NRN WI AND FAR WRN UPPER MI WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS EVEN AS SFC
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD SHOW A SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE EXTENDING WELL ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SUPPORT HEAVY WET
SNOWFALL. RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH 17Z.

..GLEASON.. 03/16/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

LAT...LON   46769347 47739364 48329334 48599264 48349160 48279063
            48048931 47509015 47098987 46828945 46068966 45689035
            45739208 46189298 46769347

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 15, 8:07 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Berrien	53 min
Mar 15, 8:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Berrien	4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.