Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 1902
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 25, 2016, 1:36 AM MST for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 25, 2016, 1:36 AM MST (08:36 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 25, 2016, 4:00 AM MST
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Baca County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Harding County, NM, Quay County, NM, Union County, NM, Cimarron County, OK, Dallam County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Oldham County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 197 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 198 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2348 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 43 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 110 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 227 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
563
ACUS11 KWNS 250836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250836
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-251100-
Mesoscale Discussion 1902
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 AM CST Sun Dec 25 2016
Areas affected...Northeast NM...southeast CO...and the northwest TX
Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 250836Z - 251100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely develop in a band from northeast
NM and spread across southeast CO and the northwest TX Panhandle
09-12z. Isolated strong/damaging winds will be possible.
DISCUSSION...Rapid low-level moistening/destabilization is underway
across the northwest TX Panhandle, northeast NM, and southeast CO as
upper 40s to middle 50s surface dewpoints surge to the
north-northwest on 30-55 kt low-level flow. A focused band of
ascent is now emerging east of the Front Range in NM in advance of a
strong midlevel trough moving over western NM. This band of ascent
will encounter the increasing low-level moisture and expanding
corridor of near-surface-based buoyancy near or after 09z, when new
thunderstorm development is expected. The low-level moistening
appears to be sufficient for storms rooted at the surface, in an
environment with strengthening deep-layer south-southwesterly flow,
which will support effective bulk shear in excess of 70 kt. Thus,
some organized structure of the convection is expected (potentially
with embedded weakly rotating elements), which will be capable of
producing isolated strong/damaging gusts.
..Thompson/Edwards.. 12/25/2016
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36590211 35380247 34960315 34940396 35270423 36640417
37310412 37670386 37920337 37870239 37470211 36590211SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 25, 6:16 AM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver, Texas | 89 min |
| Dec 25, 2:27 PM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Craig, Nowata, Osage, Ottawa, Pawnee, Rogers and 1 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.