Mesoscale Discussion 1900

Issued

Dec 22, 2016, 4:06 AM MST (11:06 UTC)

Expired

Dec 22, 2016, 8:00 AM MST

In force

4 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Torrance County, NM, Bailey County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Parmer County, TX

The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

308 
ACUS11 KWNS 221106
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221106 
TXZ000-NMZ000-221500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1900
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2016

Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern New Mexico into far
western Texas

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 221106Z - 221500Z

SUMMARY...A mixture of sleet and freezing rain will continue to
develop and spread north and northeast across central and eastern
New Mexico with liquid rates up to 0.05 inches per hour.  Freezing
rain rates may tend to be less with eastern extent into west Texas.

DISCUSSION...Overnight trends in surface analyses indicated high
pressure building across the southern High Plains, with
northeasterly/easterly low-level winds expected to sustain
sub-freezing temperatures through much of the morning in and north
of Roosevelt to Lincoln Counties.  Surface temperatures are also
falling to less than 32 F within a corridor of cold air damming
developing across the east side of the Sacramento Mountains, with
freezing rain already observed at KSRR.  

Weak height falls attendant to a lead shortwave trough tracking
northeast across NM this morning combined with an influx of Pacific
moisture and cooling/saturation in the lower troposphere will
continue to support a widespread area of precipitation spreading to
the north/northeast.  09Z RAP forecast soundings suggest cooling due
to saturation should offset the warm nose, such that sleet will be
possible, in addition to freezing rain.  Current evolution of KFDX
correlation coefficient data suggested pockets of ice pellets
extending into the melting area across central/eastern De Baca and
northwest Roosevelt Counties.  Given these dual-pol trends and
forecast soundings, a mix of sleet and freezing rain will be the
primary precipitation-types through the morning.

..Peters.. 12/22/2016

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   33920385 34070444 33870522 33450527 33000527 32560529
            32500558 33020582 33680612 34130623 34140623 34380624
            34730626 35310612 35590588 35610547 35430485 35390426
            35410352 35150300 34460240 34120224 33790233 33660317
            33660351 33920385

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.