Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 182

March 8, 20165 counties in Oklahoma; 12 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 8, 2016, 3:36 AM CST for 5 counties in Oklahoma; 12 counties in Texas. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 8, 2016, 3:36 AM CST (09:36 UTC)
Expired
Mar 8, 2016, 5:00 AM CST
In force
84 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%

Counties Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Childress County, TX, Clay County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Foard County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, King County, TX, Knox County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

The radar

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 229 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2016-03-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 258 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2016-03-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 329 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
258 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-104 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
676 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
329 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
349 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.3
Supercell composite
7.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

038 
ACUS11 KWNS 080936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080936 
OKZ000-TXZ000-081100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 080936Z - 081100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE MAY
BE NECESSARY BY 10-11Z.

DISCUSSION...TWO CLUSTERS OF STRONG TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AS OF 0930Z...ONE AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN LBB-MAF...AND THE OTHER W
OF A LINE FROM DYS-JCT. SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THESE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED AS BROAD ASCENT CONTINUES EAST OF A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH OVER NWRN MEXICO. WHILE MID-UPPER FLOW IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. 

STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WILL SUPPORT A HAIL RISK WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS...THOUGH A
GENERALLY LINEAR/LEWP CONVECTIVE MODE WILL MITIGATE THE HAIL RISK TO
SOME EXTENT. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOMEWHAT GREATER THETA-E AIRMASS ACROSS
WRN N TX WHERE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION IS LESS PRONOUNCED. SEVERE
TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE TO ADDRESS THESE RISKS IS POSSIBLE BY
10-11Z...IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE RISK.

..DEAN/CORFIDI.. 03/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...

LAT...LON   33480085 33860083 34240064 34719999 34919945 34909886
            34699831 34299795 33819807 33519813 33479888 33450031
            33480085

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 8, 9:00 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBryan, Love, Marshall90 min
Mar 8, 12:41 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCMcCurtain5 hr
Mar 7, 6:42 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBosque, Comanche, Cooke, Dallas, Denton, Ellis and 10 more63 min
Mar 7, 11:41 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBorden, Coke, Concho, Crane, Crockett, Dawson and 27 more2 hr
Mar 8, 1:18 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBosque, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Collin and 48 more10 hr
Mar 8, 3:57 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Brown, Callahan, Clay, Coleman and 36 more2 hr
Mar 8, 7:06 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Austin, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Bosque and 64 more2 hr
Mar 8, 7:24 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAnderson, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Brazos, Burleson and 29 more8 hr
Mar 8, 10:46 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAngelina, Cherokee, Hardin, Houston, Jasper, Liberty and 12 more89 min
Mar 8, 1:10 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBell, Blanco, Bosque, Brown, Burnet, Coke and 32 more95 min
Mar 8, 3:11 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Angelina, Bowie, Cass, Chambers, Cherokee and 24 more94 min
Mar 8, 5:52 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAngelina, Hardin, Jasper, Newton, Sabine, San Augustine and 2 more83 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.