Alert archive / Arizona / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 1813

November 3, 20164 counties in Arizona

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 3, 2016, 12:10 PM MST for 4 counties in Arizona. It was in force for 95 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 3, 2016, 12:10 PM MST (19:10 UTC)
Expired
Nov 3, 2016, 1:45 PM MST
In force
95 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Cochise County, AZ, Pima County, AZ, Pinal County, AZ, Santa Cruz County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KDMA), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 27 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tuscon, AZ at 12:00Z on 2016-11-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 89 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tuscon, AZ at 12:00Z on 2016-11-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 45 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
89 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-178 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1815 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
45 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
150 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

606 
ACUS11 KWNS 031910
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031910 
AZZ000-032045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1813
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT THU NOV 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 031910Z - 032045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW UNDERWAY. 
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS PROBABLE THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.  WHILE ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE
LIMITS...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS MARGINAL. 
THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.  THIS IS
OCCURRING WHERE LARGER-SCALE SUBSIDENT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
HAS ALLOWED FOR CONSIDERABLE INSOLATION...BENEATH THE -14 TO -18C
500 MB COLD CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW NOW STILL CENTERED
OVER NORTHWESTERN SONORA.  CAPE APPEARS MARGINAL FOR VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40-50 KT
SOUTHERLY MID/UPPER FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGEST LOW-TOPPED STORMS
TO TAKE ON SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL.  LOCALIZED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHERE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IS OCCURRING.

..KERR/GUYER.. 11/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON   32901253 33391107 33041017 32510964 31830945 31461000
            31401125 31801158 32371252 32901253

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arizona, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.